Business Unusual

The Hype Cycle - predicting the tech winners and losers since 2008

Image credit - NeedCokeNow - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0

A picture is worth a thousand words, they say. And when it comes to understanding the often baffling world of technology a picture certainly helps.

The Hype Cycle was created by the US IT Group Gartner to graphically show the five stages they noted that new technologies tended to follow.

It was created in 2008 and Gartner have plotted the relative placement of emerging technologies along the curve most years since then.

The stages are useful for those looking to invest in companies and services as it does offer some insight into what is simply hype and what holds the promise of long term value.

The 5 stages identified by Gartner

1. Technology Trigger - A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.

2. Peak of Inflated Expectations - Early publicity produces a number of success stories — often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.

3. Trough of Disillusionment - Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.

4. Slope of Enlightenment - More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.

5. Plateau of Productivity - Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.

Uber and the Hype Cycle - an example

Let's consider the relative coverage and developments with Uber which is arguably sitting somewhere between stage two and three.

Uber was not the first ride sharing platform but it has grown to be the best known globally, in part, because of the huge financial support it has received and for its rapid expansion to new regions. That growth assured it of lots of positive stories often loaded with hyperbole as writers tried to both explain what the service offered and considered the implication on transport companies. Initial reporting predicted the death of metered taxis and company employed taxi drivers. Both are looking unlikely with a pending US court case that may find Uber drivers are employees. This was stage one and two.

As the number of users, and its fleet of drivers, grew so too would stories about the platform's understandable short comings. Then stories about challenges to its legal standing and concerns over safety and level of regulation saw a focus of negative stories on it rather than the industry as people had come to view the ride sharing industry as being Uber. Despite a significant valuation of almost $60 billion, the operation costs suggest that the company is not profitable which places it firmly in stage three.

But its sheer size and moves by legal bodies to find a way to regulate the company, rather than ban it, suggests that the lessons learnt will see it consolidate its user base and begin, over time, to define the new normal and move into a profitability phase, stages 4 and 5.


Recommended

by NEWSROOM AI
Read More
Electric scooters - transport revolution or fad? It's probably both

Electric scooters - transport revolution or fad? It's probably both

You might not look good, but you will have fun, and you won’t be using a car.

Fortnite - two weeks will never be the same again

Fortnite - two weeks will never be the same again

The deathmatch game that may be the last one standing.

How three letters could save the planet from climate change

How three letters could save the planet from climate change

You might not like it, but the world's best scientists think a tax is the best way to deal with climate change.

Super economies may sound great, but they also create super losers

Super economies may sound great, but they also create super losers

How technology created the superstar but killed the profession.

How flavour created the modern economy

How flavour created the modern economy

A look at how our desire for spice changed the world and how it continues to do so.

The businesses that boomed and went bust on Business Unusual

The businesses that boomed and went bust on Business Unusual

Predictions, products and personalities featured in "Business Unusual" in the last three years.

Popular articles
Gigaba implicated in Transnet impropriety

Gigaba implicated in Transnet impropriety

Gigaba has been fingered in a forensic investigation related to the procurement process for locomotives from China South Rail.

[LISTEN] Cervical cancer is the only cancer that is caused by sex - Dr Eve

[LISTEN] Cervical cancer is the only cancer that is caused by sex - Dr Eve

Dr Eve discusses cervical cancer and how it can be prevented.

[LISTEN] Is Gqom really music? Callers share their views

[LISTEN] Is Gqom really music? Callers share their views

Callers on the open line discuss class appropriation by musicians and music genres.

3 risks to your retirement savings (and how to mitigate each of them)

3 risks to your retirement savings (and how to mitigate each of them)

Only 5% of South African retirement fund members will retire comfortably. Bruce Whitfield interviews advisor Warren Ingram.

Gift of the Givers' Dr Imtiaz Sooliman – angel amongst men – talks about money

Gift of the Givers' Dr Imtiaz Sooliman – angel amongst men – talks about money

"I have no desire for clothes. I have no desire for holidays. I have no desire for outings. All I see is the suffering of people…"

Gauteng Education to do away with old apartheid era feeder schools policy

Gauteng Education to do away with old apartheid era feeder schools policy

The new feeder policies will be implemented by 2020.

Thandeka Gqubule prepared to fight EFF to the end

Thandeka Gqubule prepared to fight EFF to the end

SABC Journalist and part of the SABC 8 Thandeka Gqubule says she has not had any communication from the EFF.

Discovery Bank takes on Capitec Bank, TymeDigital (Patrice Motsepe), Bank Zero

Discovery Bank takes on Capitec Bank, TymeDigital (Patrice Motsepe), Bank Zero

South Africa has a brand-new bank! The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews Adrian Gore, Discovery Group CEO.