Allan Gray admits that luck is critical to investment success

We have no sustainable advantage predicting these factors, and won’t get it right every year.

Duncan Artus, Allan Gray Portfolio Manager

It’s always good to stay humble.

Duncan Artus, Allan Gray Portfolio Manager

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviewed Allan Gray Portfolio Manager Duncan Artus.

Artus – in his words - discussed five examples of how luck was critical in their investments.

  • The rise in global terrorism: deadly attacks in Paris, Nice, Brussels and Istanbul, to name a few, dented the public morale, rattled the luxury goods market and led to Richemont being the top contributor to our relative returns for the 12 months to September.

  • MTN’s fine: completely unexpected, took management by surprise and contributed to the fall in the share price which made MTN the second biggest contributor to our relative returns for the 12 months to September.

  • AB-InBev’s acquisition of SABMiller: while in our assessment a transaction was probable, trying to predict merger and acquisition activity is near impossible.

  • Brexit: by the time Brexit came about, we had reduced our clients’ SABMiller holdings by two-thirds and were substantially underweight in the stock. The concomitant fall in the share price stood us in good stead on a relative basis.

  • Gold shares: in isolation accounted for a quarter of our outperformance. The gold price went up because of a confluence of global macroeconomic factors.

Need more detail? Listen to the interview in the audio below.

Click here (then“like” the page) to follow Bruce on Facebook.

Enter your email address in the form below to receive a newsletter containing the most-read articles of the week from Bruce Whitfield’s The Money Show every Friday morning in your inbox.

Subscribe to our Business Wrap Newsletter

Article brought to us by Old Mutual.

Read More
How to create more time (and how to spend it wisely)

How to create more time (and how to spend it wisely)

Make no mistake; strategizing to grow your business takes time. Yet, few business owners seem to have enough of it.

Some investments are more attractive after Budget 2017 (some not so much)

Some investments are more attractive after Budget 2017 (some not so much)

Personal Financial Advisor Warren Ingram gives advice on where to put your money; considering changes brought by Budget 2017.

Cricket SA guns for international superstars to play in new #T20 Global League

Cricket SA guns for international superstars to play in new #T20 Global League

Best. News. EVER! South Africa is getting its own global T20 league. Bruce Whitfield interviews Cricket SA CEO Haroon Lorgat.

Budget 2017 and tax: The good (there is some), the bad and the ugly

Budget 2017 and tax: The good (there is some), the bad and the ugly

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews TaxTim cofounder Marc Sevitz.

Meet Zibusiso Mkhwanazi; CEO of “Digital at the core marketing agency” AVATAR

Meet Zibusiso Mkhwanazi; CEO of “Digital at the core marketing agency” AVATAR

Mkhwanazi – son of an entrepreneur – founded a web design firm (Csonke.com) with R2000 when he was 17 and still in school.

5 most important ways Budget 2017 will tighten your belt for you

5 most important ways Budget 2017 will tighten your belt for you

The Money Show's Bruce Whitfield interviews Personal Finance Journalist Maya Fischer-French.

Popular articles
Police shoot at crowd of immigrants with rubber bullets (arrests 136 people)

Police shoot at crowd of immigrants with rubber bullets (arrests 136 people)

"As we speak there’s another standoff in Sunnyside, " says EWN's Barry Bateman.

10 sexting tips on how to keep things spicy (and safe)

10 sexting tips on how to keep things spicy (and safe)

Interested in sexting but worried about the risks? Dr Eve has created a guideline to help you 'sext' in a fun and responsible way.

Vaal Dam about to reach 100% capacity

Vaal Dam about to reach 100% capacity

A few months ago the dam was only 27% full.

Letters show Moyane refuses to account to Gordhan, turns to Zuma to intervene

Letters show Moyane refuses to account to Gordhan, turns to Zuma to intervene

M&G reports that Sars Commissioner Tom Moyane declared an intergovernmental dispute against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.

Violence breaks out in Atteridgeville amid #XenoMarch

Violence breaks out in Atteridgeville amid #XenoMarch

Tensions are high in Atteridgeville as a group calling itself Mamelodi Concerned Residents prepares to march against immigrants.

Where is that corrupt bastard? - EFF MP to Brian Molefe

Where is that corrupt bastard? - EFF MP to Brian Molefe

Former Eskom CEO Brian Molefe was sworn in as a Member of Parliament replacing Abram Mudau this week.

New transfer cost threshold an unwise move - property expert

New transfer cost threshold an unwise move - property expert

What does the Finance Minister's announcement on transfer duty threshold really mean for home buyers?

'Engrish' never loved us: 30 words listeners struggle to pronounce

'Engrish' never loved us: 30 words listeners struggle to pronounce

Worcestershire or "Wooster" sauce? The Queen's language can be over-rated and hard to get right! Listeners chuckle at themselves.

Budget 2017 and tax: The good (there is some), the bad and the ugly

Budget 2017 and tax: The good (there is some), the bad and the ugly

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews TaxTim cofounder Marc Sevitz.