Allan Gray admits that luck is critical to investment success

We have no sustainable advantage predicting these factors, and won’t get it right every year.

Duncan Artus, Allan Gray Portfolio Manager

It’s always good to stay humble.

Duncan Artus, Allan Gray Portfolio Manager

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviewed Allan Gray Portfolio Manager Duncan Artus.

Artus – in his words - discussed five examples of how luck was critical in their investments.

  • The rise in global terrorism: deadly attacks in Paris, Nice, Brussels and Istanbul, to name a few, dented the public morale, rattled the luxury goods market and led to Richemont being the top contributor to our relative returns for the 12 months to September.

  • MTN’s fine: completely unexpected, took management by surprise and contributed to the fall in the share price which made MTN the second biggest contributor to our relative returns for the 12 months to September.

  • AB-InBev’s acquisition of SABMiller: while in our assessment a transaction was probable, trying to predict merger and acquisition activity is near impossible.

  • Brexit: by the time Brexit came about, we had reduced our clients’ SABMiller holdings by two-thirds and were substantially underweight in the stock. The concomitant fall in the share price stood us in good stead on a relative basis.

  • Gold shares: in isolation accounted for a quarter of our outperformance. The gold price went up because of a confluence of global macroeconomic factors.

Need more detail? Listen to the interview in the audio below.

Click here (then“like” the page) to follow Bruce on Facebook.

Enter your email address in the form below to receive a newsletter containing the most-read articles of the week from Bruce Whitfield’s The Money Show every Friday morning in your inbox.

Subscribe to our Business Wrap Newsletter

Article brought to us by Old Mutual.


This article first appeared on CapeTalk : Allan Gray admits that luck is critical to investment success


Recommended

by NEWSROOM AI
Read More
Pay less fees and tax on your investments. Diversify. Then be patient…

Pay less fees and tax on your investments. Diversify. Then be patient…

The market is toast. Don’t leak money! Bruce Whitfield interviews Craig Gradidge, South Africa’s top wealth manager.

Menthols far deadlier than regular cigarettes, finds FDA. BAT shares tumble 11%

Menthols far deadlier than regular cigarettes, finds FDA. BAT shares tumble 11%

A proposed FDA ban wiped R176bn from British American Tobacco's market cap. Bruce Whitfield talks to Dr Richard van Zyl-Smit.

3 best shares to buy this week (by Cannon Asset Managers)

3 best shares to buy this week (by Cannon Asset Managers)

Dr Adrian Saville shares his stock picks of the week.

'I don’t spend much. I drive an old car. I’ve never been in debt'

'I don’t spend much. I drive an old car. I’ve never been in debt'

Bruce Whitfield interviews analyst Chris Gilmour about his attitude toward money (hopes and fears, successes and failures, etc.).

Vodacom adds 373 000 subscribers, increases dividends (while MTN cuts)

Vodacom adds 373 000 subscribers, increases dividends (while MTN cuts)

The issuing of 114m shares to meet BEE targets weighed on Vodacom's results. Bruce Whitfield interviews CEO, Shameel Joosub.

Jomo Sono takes on DStv, Netflix, Showmax with free TV streaming service TV2GO

Jomo Sono takes on DStv, Netflix, Showmax with free TV streaming service TV2GO

With 100 channels and on-demand content, he is targeting 500 000 viewers within a year. Ray White interviews Sono.

Popular articles
'Perhaps somebody is misleading the Public Protector'

'Perhaps somebody is misleading the Public Protector'

Bishop Malusi Mpumlwana gives his take on the supposed 'fightback' against Pravin Gordhan.

'I don’t spend much. I drive an old car. I’ve never been in debt'

'I don’t spend much. I drive an old car. I’ve never been in debt'

Bruce Whitfield interviews analyst Chris Gilmour about his attitude toward money (hopes and fears, successes and failures, etc.).

Daughter of Timol murder accused Joao Rodrigues reveals sexual abuse

Daughter of Timol murder accused Joao Rodrigues reveals sexual abuse

Tilana Stander talks about the abuse she suffered at the hands of her father.

[LISTEN]  My Life Beyond HIV

[LISTEN] My Life Beyond HIV

Pholokgolo Ramothwala chats to Azania about living with HIV and his newly released book, My Life Beyond HIV.

WATCH:  Crash, bang, wallop! How would YOU explain this to YOUR boss?

WATCH: Crash, bang, wallop! How would YOU explain this to YOUR boss?

The woman comes out of the crash without a scratch but is visibly distressed by the incident that she may have to explain later.

[LISTEN] Steinhoff explained: 100 times more looted in Steinhoff saga than VBS

[LISTEN] Steinhoff explained: 100 times more looted in Steinhoff saga than VBS

Steinhoff’s Web of Deception: An Explainer with Financial Mail journalist Warren Thompson.

[WATCH] Iceland’s Christmas advert banned- for being too political

[WATCH] Iceland’s Christmas advert banned- for being too political

Khabazela shares tweets and Facebook posts that have gone viral.