Midday Report Freedom Day Special: 4 scenarios for South Africa's future

When one begins to look at scenarios for our country, where does one start?

Stephen Grootes talks to Frans Cronje, CEO of the South African Institute for Race Relations Centre for Risk Analysis on this Freedom Day Midday Report Special.

Cronje in his book _A time traveller's guide to our next ten years _gives an overview of the various scenarios that may play out in the South African political and economic arena over the next 10 years.

Painting different series of scenarios, running from the authoritarian right to what one may call the tyranny of the left, Cronje offers up various possible futures for South Africa.

The first thing to accept when we look at the future is we are not going to forecast it accurately to a future point in space and time. And that's why we work in scenarios top sketch a series of plausible futures.

Frans Cronje, CEO of the South African Institute for Race Relations Centre for Risk Analysis

Using key trends in our society, he outlines the four most likely scenarios for South Africa, which he calls the Narrow Road, the Wide Road, the Rocky Road and the Toll Road.

He speaks about a number of scenarios and ends with one he considers to be most attractive and best case for the country.

We've called it The Rise of the Rainbow. What happens here is that broad common ground is found in a new political coalition.

Frans Cronje, CEO of the South African Institute for Race Relations Centre for Risk Analysis

He argues this coalition may be structured in a number of ways.

It could come from the better parts of the ANC with the better parts of the DA. It can be the DA building a broad coalition around some of the smaller parties. And this coalition either in 2019 or 2024 finds itself in control of national government.

Frans Cronje, CEO of the South African Institute for Race Relations Centre for Risk Analysis

It's also understood that in order to remain in control, it has to secure a rapid short-term improvement in the basic living standards of people. And it does so by placing South Africa's very capable private sector in a position where much higher levels of capital investment, domestic and foreign, into the country drives the growth rate to 5%.

Frans Cronje, CEO of the South African Institute for Race Relations Centre for Risk Analysis

This would be a watershed, he says, driving unemployment levels down.

The rise of this scenario by the mid-2020s can create a stable country which has preserved its civil rights culture, he concludes.

Take a listen:


Read More
Fedusa to meet PIC as Steinhoff crash hits workers pension funds hard

Fedusa to meet PIC as Steinhoff crash hits workers pension funds hard

Public Investment Corporation (PIC) has reportedly lost almost 9% value due to Steinhoff share price tumble last week.

Casac to challenge Zuma's appeal of Abrahams High Court order

Casac to challenge Zuma's appeal of Abrahams High Court order

The National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) will appeal a High Court order that its head Shaun Abrahams leave office.

Instead of investigating state capture they are investigating me - Jacques Pauw

Instead of investigating state capture they are investigating me - Jacques Pauw

Journalist and author Jaques Pauw says he doesn't understand why he being investigated and summoned to appear before police.

[LISTEN] Corruption Watch to commemorate International Corruption Day

[LISTEN] Corruption Watch to commemorate International Corruption Day

Ray White spoke to Programmes Coordinator, Zola Valashia about the organisation's latest strategies.

Emotional scenes at Life Esidimeni arbitration as Selebano gives final testimony

Emotional scenes at Life Esidimeni arbitration as Selebano gives final testimony

The suspended Gauteng Health HOD has been testifying since Tuesday.

Shaun Abrahams must go (and JZ can’t appoint his replacement) – High Court

Shaun Abrahams must go (and JZ can’t appoint his replacement) – High Court

Shaun Abrahams must go, and Presidnet Jacob Zuma may not appoint his replacement. So ruled the Pretoria High Court on Friday.

Popular articles
South Africans Doing Great Things |  Nkosinathi Nkomo

South Africans Doing Great Things | Nkosinathi Nkomo

Wasanga speaks to Co-founder of AquaRenu, Nkosinathi Nkomo about turning a problem into an opportunity.

Dr Mbuyiseni Ndlozi opens up about his thesis

Dr Mbuyiseni Ndlozi opens up about his thesis

Ndlozi explains the significance of the the first chapter of his thesis: 'Trauma in the archives'.

German prosecutors probing Steinhoff CEO Markus Jooste (for accounting fraud)

German prosecutors probing Steinhoff CEO Markus Jooste (for accounting fraud)

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviews Steinhoff International Chairperson Christo Wiese.

Is it normal to have a curved penis? Dr Shingai explains

Is it normal to have a curved penis? Dr Shingai explains

Urologist Dr Shingai Mutambirwa says penile curvature is only a concern if it impedes a man's ability to have penetrative sex.

Who is Advocate Tembeka Ngcukaitobi?

Who is Advocate Tembeka Ngcukaitobi?

The EFF lawyer stole the show during the state capture report court battle.

Meet Shoprite’s Christo Wiese, ruler of retail (and 3rd richest African)

Meet Shoprite’s Christo Wiese, ruler of retail (and 3rd richest African)

Bruce Whitfield interviews the remarkable Wiese (net worth R100 billion!) about how it all began and where it’s going.

3 easy questions could bag you R2000!

3 easy questions could bag you R2000!

WIN R2000! But only if you can prove you're a whiz of the MTN Biz Quiz by answering the following three questions...

Blesserfinder: Matching you with a sugar daddy near you

Blesserfinder: Matching you with a sugar daddy near you

Is social trend Blesserfinder, where girls are allegedly matching up with rich 'benefactors' in exchange for sex, a real thing?