What are the odds of removing Zuma? A look at no confidence in numbers

Tuesday 8 August is D-Day for the vote of no-confidence in President Jacob Zuma, which will take place by secret ballot.

JUST IN: Mbete approves secret ballot

Some South Africans are skeptical and want to know what the potential outcomes of the vote are.

Here are the numbers...

51% of the votes is required in both cases for the motion to carry - 201 votes of the total 400.

400 MPs sit in the National Assembly in total

249 are ANC MPs

151 are MPs from all the opposition parties

50 ANC MPs minimum would need to support the motion for it to succeed

37 MPs from parties other than the DA and EFF will need to support the motion.

Read: Law expert answers big 'what-ifs' ahead of Zuma no confidence debate

Abstaining would in effect be a no vote. While most opposition parties have indicated their willingness to support the motion, not all have agreed.

The advantage of a secret ballot?

If the vote is secret, it may allow any MP to vote against their party's wishes or abstain.

ANC opposition to President Zuma?

For the ANC MPs who oppose the President, they may prefer to bring their own motion rather than support the opposition and so abstain even in a secret ballot.

What does the Constitution say?

If there is enough support for the motion, Section 102 of Chapter 5 of the Constitution requires the President, Deputy President and Cabinet to resign.

The Speaker, Baleka Mbete would become acting president and a new President would need to be elected within 30 days.


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