Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa

President Jacob Zuma's term as leader of the African National Congress comes to an end this weekend with a new president set to be elected.

There have been questions as to whether or not Zuma should be recalled as state president.

Political analyst Dr Somadoda Fikeni says it all depends on the balance of forces, but he may be persuaded to step down before 2019.

The temptation for some to say let's use the same conference to recall him may be there, but they might want that to be deferred to 2018. Whether Cyril or Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma wins, they are going to persuade him, or recall him not to see his term through to 2019 because of the very big political risk that he is carrying.

— Dr Somadoda Fikeni, Political analyst

The court cases didn't make the decision any easier because they were definitive and quite devastating in a sense.

— Dr Somadoda Fikeni, Political analyst

He says what this means, is that from 2018 onward, Jacob Zuma will be spending more time involved in court cases and before commissions of inquiry than running the country.

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Speaking on the leading candidates, Fikeni says Dlamini-Zuma is a relatively better performer than most, but her proximity to the President has nullified her personal achievements.

The irony of all this, is that on a year when it looks probable that a woman could become a leader of the ANC for the first time in its history, instead, the gender debate, the women's right debate is nullified. Instead, it looks like a male agenda put in front of a female candidate.

— Dr Somadoda Fikeni, Political analyst

He says the ANC is likely to split if Dlamini-Zuma wins.

I think ANC will split and Cosatu and SACP may go with the split version and should that split be significant then ANC can forget about getting 50% plus 1% in 2019 .

— Dr Somadoda Fikeni, Political analyst

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It's clear that Cyril has a clear lead. Should the results magically turn the other way, the psychological trauma out of that, and the perception that something irregular has happened at the backdrop of claims of corruption, of money being used, then the rupture is likely to emanate from that.

— Dr Somadoda Fikeni, Political analyst

In terms of policy, Fikeni says the ANC had a great start with groundbreaking policies but it seems to have declined because of patronage networks and divisions within the ruling party.

Click on the link below to hear more of Fikeni's analysis of the party and its future...