ANC 2017 Elective Conference

ISS on Russian influence on ANC and could a Cyril win prevent another downgrade?

Head of African Futures & Innovation at Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Dr Jakkie Cilliers says it’s likely that Russia will interfere in the African National Congress (ANC) elective conference when the party chooses a successor to President Jacob Zuma this weekend.

He says Russia’s determination to sell a trillion-rand nuclear power plant to South Africa gives it a considerable stake in the ANC leadership contest.

I certainly think that Russia has some skin in the game...

Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures & Innovation at ISS

Cilliers says although Russia might be having some influence in the ruling party, the momentum of the purchasing of delegates comes domestically. How the activities of this weekend will pan out lies on how various camps of delegates inside the ANC play their cards.

Read: "ANC has gone with the correct democratic method" - Political Analyst

It is not only the purchase of the delegates but the choice of the delegates that is very important. I think that is driven by the domestic consideration and commercial consideration about who has the most to loose in what's going to happen this weekend.

Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures & Innovation at ISS

Cillers makes some predictions of what will happen if Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma or Cyril Ramaphosa be voted in as the President of the ANC.

Cyril Ramaphosa's new deal to set out 3% growth target for 2018, will only be possible if Jacob Zuma is recalled no later than the first week of January so that the new finance minister can present the budget in February.

Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures & Innovation at ISS

If we are downgraded, growth is going to be slow.

Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures & Innovation at ISS

A Dlamini-Zuma win could lead to a downgrade next week, whereas Ramaphosa has a chance of avoiding that with the appointment of a new cabinet and recalling Jacob Zuma... If he doesn't do that he is not going to achieve anything close to his failed economic outcome.

Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures & Innovation at ISS

To hear more from the political scenario planner, Dr Jakkie Cilliers, listen below:


This article first appeared on CapeTalk : ISS on Russian influence on ANC and could a Cyril win prevent another downgrade?


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