‘Land issue – in a worst case scenario – can cause civil war in South Africa’

Famed futurist Clem Sunter’s “High Road/Low Road” scenarios are well-known; updates are eagerly awaited.

South Africa was on the “High Road” during the presidencies of Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki, he says, with good economic growth rates.

However, more recently, the economy has stuttered.

Sunter says there are six “flags” to watch:

  • Corruption (Will it be eliminated? Will past perpetrators be pursued?)

  • Improving the quality of education, healthcare and general infrastructure (and management of state-owned companies)

  • Inclusive style of leadership is needed

  • Replicating (instead of “dumbing down”) pockets of excellence

  • Opening of the economy to achieve economic freedom for all

  • Land reform executed with “enough goodwill on all sides to rule out any form of conflict” (worst case scenario: civil war)

Probability of different paths, according to Sunter:

  • High Road (economic growth of 5% per annum) - 60%

  • Low Road (economic stagnation, distribution without growth) - 30%

  • Chaos of a failed state - 10%

The Money Show’s Bruce Whitfield interviewed Sunter.

Listen to the interview in the audio below (and/or scroll down for quotes from it).

We don’t have the money anymore. We’re junk status… Cyril has to draw a line in the sand on this [corruption]…

Clem Sunter

I believe that over the next few months you’re going to see action taken to get rid of the people who were part of previous corruption… I’m very positive on that flag, at the moment.

Clem Sunter

…The number one characteristic of a winning nation is the quality of its education system… We put the money into it, we’ve just got to manage it better… Zimbabwe has a better education system than we do…

Clem Sunter

It [land] is the one issue that can cause, in a worst case scenario, civil war in this country… It must be about more than changing farm ownership…

Clem Sunter

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