2019 South African general election: Analysis and News

Melanie Verwoerd: How to read political polls ahead of upcoming 2019 election

Kieno Kammies speaks to Melanie Verwoerd about the build-up to the general elections which will be taking place on 8 May 2019.

This is the first of a weekly discussion she will be having with Kieno, looking at various aspects and dynamics of the election process.

Political opinion polls seem to present such a range of differing results.

She explains how these opinion polls work.

They give as a bit of a projection into the future. They want to know if the election was held today, what would happen?

Melanie Verwoerd, Analyst and former ANC MP

She says both voters and political parties study these results closely.

There are different types of polls. Firstly, those done by outside bodies

Either polling agencies like Ipsos, it does that for a living, or think tanks like the Institute for Race Relations who are often slightly politically aligned. And then parties do internal political polling that they usually keep under lock and key because they don't want people to know the results.

Melanie Verwoerd, Analyst and former ANC MP

So how come sometimes polls get it so wrong like in the USA with the Clinton trump results? She says in South Africa it is useful to suggest what we should look out for when assessing poll results.

Here are some factors to consider:

  1. The size of the poll
  2. Geographical spread
  3. Urban-rural balance
  4. Face-to-face poll
  5. When it was conducted
  6. Whether registered voters were polled

Take a listen to more insights into the recent polling results below and Verwoerd's assessment of where political parties are currently situated:


This article first appeared on CapeTalk : Melanie Verwoerd: How to read political polls ahead of upcoming 2019 election


Recommended

by NEWSROOM AI
Read More
It is crucial that Cyril Ramaphosa prioritises implementation - economist

It is crucial that Cyril Ramaphosa prioritises implementation - economist

Intellidex's Peter Attard Montalto says the president needs to follow through with all his promises.

'It is clear that electorate is giving us serious consideration' - EFF

'It is clear that electorate is giving us serious consideration' - EFF

Post-election, national chairperson advocate Dali Mpofu evaluates the party's gains.

Gigaba, Dlamini and Mokonyane heading to Parliament despite outcry

Gigaba, Dlamini and Mokonyane heading to Parliament despite outcry

Political analyst Nompumelelo Runji says these people have support from their constituencies.

MPs to be sworn in next week as chief justice receives candidate lists

MPs to be sworn in next week as chief justice receives candidate lists

Eyewitness News reporter Ayanda Nyathi shares details on the process leading up to the first sitting of the National Assembly.

Could former ANC mayors come back as Gauteng MECs?

Could former ANC mayors come back as Gauteng MECs?

Eyewitness News reporter Clement Manyathela shares details on the return of Kgosientso Ramokgopa and Parks Tau.

'We take responsibility for our shortfall and don't blame anyone for our defeat'

'We take responsibility for our shortfall and don't blame anyone for our defeat'

Democratic Alliance says it will review its elections campaign and performance.

Popular articles
[WATCH] Mabena's lack of agility has social media in stitches, we are Mabena!

[WATCH] Mabena's lack of agility has social media in stitches, we are Mabena!

Khabazela shares tweets and Facebook posts that have gone viral.

Uber takes to the skies with Uber Air and Uber Copter

Uber takes to the skies with Uber Air and Uber Copter

Uber Air’s flying taxis are specifically designed for short trips. Bruce Whitfield interviews Stuff magazine’s Toby Shapshak.

SA’s richest woman opens up about being a refugee and becoming a billionaire

SA’s richest woman opens up about being a refugee and becoming a billionaire

Magda Wierzycka – Sygnia’s renegade CEO – on her attitude toward money (hopes and fears, successes and failures, etc.).

Your employer can ask your doctor to write an affidavit to support a sick note

Your employer can ask your doctor to write an affidavit to support a sick note

Law says if a traditional healer is part of medical council with a registered number he or she can write a medical certificate.

South Africans are getting poorer and poorer at an increasing rate

South Africans are getting poorer and poorer at an increasing rate

Bruce Whitfield interviews Mike Schussler (Economists.Co.Za), Busisiwe Radebe (Nedbank) and Edward Kieswetter (Sars).

[WATCH] 400-metre hurdle race goes viral as athlete dives through finish line

[WATCH] 400-metre hurdle race goes viral as athlete dives through finish line

Khabazela shares tweets and Facebook posts that have gone viral.

Meet Sandile Shabalala, CEO of black-owned and controlled TymeBank

Meet Sandile Shabalala, CEO of black-owned and controlled TymeBank

TymeBank has no branches and no monthly fees. Most transactions are free. Bruce Whitfield interviews its CEO.