The Political Party Co-operation and Building and Sustaining of Coalitions initiative's project coordinator and chief researcher Mike Law says while the African National Congress (ANC) will most likely secure a majority in the national vote, it runs the risk of losing its majority in Gauteng.
Law says the ruling party is vulnerable in a few areas and if there is going to be a coalition that emerges from the results, it will be in the country's most populated and resourceful province.
He says the Democratic Alliance (DA) is also at risk of being forced into a coalition in the Western Cape.
The DA are concerned about holding onto power in the Western Cape; I think the problem there is that the DA are suffering several threats from smaller parties. We don't know how long GOOD is going to do. There has been some good results in bi-elections for the SADP and other unknown constitutes that are potentially eating into the DA's majority there.— Mike Law, Chief researcher - Political Party Co-operation and Building and Sustaining of Coalitions initiative
Other than that we struggle to see where else there will be a coalition but this election has proved to be one of the most difficult to predict in South Africa's democratic history.— Mike Law, Chief researcher - Political Party Cooperation and Building and Sustaining of Coalitions
He says whatever deal is available for the three major parties - ANC, DA and Economic Freedom Fighters - they will take the one that strengthens their position the most.
Law says in some instances a coalition may be of concern as the electorate may be against the decision.
Is this deal they are going to make going to please the electorate or is the electorate going to think of it as somewhat of a betrayal?— Mike Law, Chief researcher - Political Party Co-operation and Building and Sustaining of Coalitions
I am not saying this will be the case but if you take the hypothetical of a DA and EFF coalition, there is no guarantee that the electorate of those parties will accept that decision and we could see a potential backlash from votes in future elections as we have seen all over the world where coalitions go wrong.— Mike Law, Chief researcher - Political Party Co-operation and Building and Sustaining of Coalitions
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