Can we avoid recession after the Absa PMI fell for a second month?

We're only eight days out in 2020 and so much has happened.

The Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index fell for a second month after surprise loadshedding in December.

Despite loadshedding and the slowing economy hitting manufacturing, can we still avoid a recession?

I was quite surprised that the PMI fell as little as it did. I would have thought that the impact of last month's loadshedding would have been so tremendous that the PI would plunge to its lowest level, but it didn't.

Dr Azar Jammine, Director and Chief Economist - Econometrix

The economy somehow still has a certain amount of resilience and is not plunging headfirst into collapse. It does not mean it's strong - it's just not plunging completely.

Dr Azar Jammine, Director and Chief Economist - Econometrix

What HAS been done was President Ramaphosa with his two investment summits. The other thing that he's been trying to do was to bring the judicial system bringing those guilty of corruption to book. Here we see action but no real results yet. And that's what I think people are waiting for.

Dr Azar Jammine, Director and Chief Economist - Econometrix

The other source of encouragement is the matric results which show we have the highest pass rate in history. There are still masisve educational problems but at least we do seem to be moving in the right direction.

Dr Azar Jammine, Director and Chief Economist - Econometrix

What we are not doing is really encouraging small business activity. The regulatory environment that is being imposed on small business by the government is totally anathema to promoting better economic growth.

Dr Azar Jammine, Director and Chief Economist - Econometrix

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