The COVID-19 cases have now passed the 200 000 globally, the credit rating agency S&P has painted a gloomy picture of the global economy and predicts a global recession.
South Africa has 116 cases of COVID-19 and is currently under a state of disaster with schools closed, travel restricted and many working from home as a form of social distancing.
What are the likely scenarios for South Africa?
Bongani Bingwa chats to Gordon Institute of Business scenario planning lecturer Marius Oosthuizen to give more insight on the matter.
When we do scenario planning, we are avoiding making predictions, what we are doing instead is thinking about possible scenarios, the uncertainties that will shape this and then we build alternative future projections that guide us in our current thinking.— Marius Oosthuizen, Scenario planning lecturer - Gordon Institute of Business
The key questions around the pandemic have to do with the size, scale and the speed of infections in the country with the size and effectiveness of the responses to the virus.
In a scenario where we have a small number of infections, taking place slowly, we call that a storm in a teacup. There is lots of concern but there is very little impact on the economy and society. We were in that scene about a month ago.— Marius Oosthuizen, Scenario planning lecturer - Gordon Institute of Business
He says the country is moving very quickly out of that scenario into the next scenario.
If you have a scenario where you have a very large widespread infection. Does South Africa respond adequately enough to avoid widespread infection? If it doesn't we get into a scenario called the perfect storm. We need to take the necessary steps to avoid a perfect storm scenario.— Marius Oosthuizen, Scenario planning lecturer - Gordon Institute of Business
To track the latest developments around the coronavirus both in South Africa and abroad, click on this live status report from Strategix.
<b>Listen below to the full conversation: </b>