Streaming issues? Report here
Refiloe Mpakanyane 1500 x 1500 2020 Refiloe Mpakanyane 1500 x 1500 2020
Weekend Breakfast with Refiloe Mpakanyane
06:00 - 10:00
volume_up
volume_mute

Up Next: Soulful Sundays with Kenny Maistry
See full line-up
Weekend Breakfast with Refiloe Mpakanyane
06:00 - 10:00
Home
arrow_forward
Business
fiber_manual_record
Politics

Our volatile but resilient rand: 'Driven only one-third by domestic factors'

12 January 2021 6:48 PM
Tags:
Rand
The Money Show
Bruce Whitfield
Exchange rate
John Cairns

'Don't forget the rand tends to strengthen slowly and then weaken quickly.' Bruce Whitfield interviews RMB strategist John Cairns.

The one thing the rand is - if nothing else - is incredibly volatile!

Bruce Whitfield, The Money Show host

The currency may have started 2020 at about R14.50 to the US dollar and ended the year around R14.60, but during those 12 months it was anything but stable, remarks Bruce Whitfield.

"It traded as weak as R19.26 to the dollar on the 5th of April and then R14.60 on New Year's Day this year."

On Monday, ten days later, the rand fell to a one-month low of R15.58 to the US dollar.

John Maytham speaks to John Cairns, Global Markets Strategist at Rand Merchant Bank (RMB).

Cairns notes that South Africa has the second most volatile currency in the world.

We must never forget this ability of the rand to move very quickly, and particularly the ability of the rand to weaken very quickly. It tends to strengthen slowly and then weaken quickly.

John Cairns, Global Markets Strategist - Rand Merchant Bank

It's the Brazilians who typically outdo us. The Turkish lira's also been particularly volatile.

John Cairns, Global Markets Strategist - Rand Merchant Bank

Typically, volatile currencies are emerging markets, commodity exporters with high inflation and interest rates... In the developed world it's Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

John Cairns, Global Markets Strategist - Rand Merchant Bank

Cairns says the ongoing rally in commodity prices is helping South Africa's export sector.

However the import sector is still constrained, largely due to weak domestic demand because of the economic fallout of the lockdown.

He emphasizes the effect of movements in the global economy and looks at the chances of a global recovery in 2021.

The rand - just like it did after 2001 and 2008 - has come screaming back.

John Cairns, Global Markets Strategist - Rand Merchant Bank

I always like to say the rand is driven two-thirds by global factors and one-third driven by domestic factors.

John Cairns, Global Markets Strategist - Rand Merchant Bank

There's so much optimism out there about a vaccine-inspired economic boom in the second half of 2021; markets have been betting on that... and the rand's been caught up in that whole wave.

John Cairns, Global Markets Strategist - Rand Merchant Bank

Listen to Cairns discuss the drivers of the hoped-for 2021 recovery:




12 January 2021 6:48 PM
Tags:
Rand
The Money Show
Bruce Whitfield
Exchange rate
John Cairns

More from Business

Economy in 2021: 'Expect a better year for South African assets'

15 January 2021 3:02 PM

An economist expects China growth at 9.5%, US money-printing, rising metal prices and trade- and current-account surpluses in SA.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Retirement funds in SA are changing – new laws come into effect on 1 March 2021

15 January 2021 1:23 PM

Bruce Whitfield asks personal finance advisor Warren Ingram to explain in detail the new laws affecting provident funds.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Wine industry runs out of storage due to ban - R1.5b's worth could be lost

14 January 2021 9:06 PM

A new harvest is imminent and there's no more space for unsold wine. We have the highest stock level ever - Vinpro's Rico Basson

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Don't fall for promises of high returns from latest investment scam, warns FSCA

14 January 2021 8:19 PM

A new scam is surfacing on Facebook and WhatsApp groups. The masterminds are even using the FSP number of a legitimate company.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

'Thank you Mr President for not shutting us down, but we need more support!'

14 January 2021 7:35 PM

Loadshedding is another blow to the struggling restaurant industry. We need more relief says Grace Harding (Restaurant Collective)

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Pick n Pay announces retirement of CEO credited with retailer's turnaround

14 January 2021 6:41 PM

Richard Brasher will be replaced by Netherlands-born Pieter Boone in April. A retail expert evaluates Brasher's performance.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Telegram now counts 500m active users. 'People are rebelling against Facebook!'

13 January 2021 9:03 PM

The new privacy policy being implemented by WhatsApp's parent company is the straw that broke the consumer's back - Toby Shapshak

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Mindful drinking: 'Non-alcoholic drinks having a heyday in SA right now'

13 January 2021 8:28 PM

Non-alcoholic drinks can be seen on shelves just about everywhere. Bruce Whitfield interviews Mindful Drinking SA's Sean O'Connor.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Singh must provide affidavit by Monday after non-appearance at Zondo Commission

13 January 2021 7:47 PM

Former Eskom CFO Anoj Singh will still have to appear after not testifying as scheduled, says EWN's Gaye Davis. But will he sing?

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

A Social Reckoning

13 January 2021 7:15 PM

How to balance free speech with constructive engagement and manage it all as a business.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

More from Politics

Ramaphosa: Treasury will make sure money is available for COVID-19 vaccine

15 January 2021 12:56 PM

President Cyril Ramaphosa said that the country would get 20 million vaccines from a variety of suppliers including Pfizer, AstraZeneca as well as Johnson & Johnson.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

WATCH LIVE: Clement Manyathela and Tshidi Madia speak to the President

15 January 2021 11:59 AM

Cyril Ramaphosa comments about the war against #Covid19 and plans for our battered economy and the challenges facing the ANC.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

'Thank you Mr President for not shutting us down, but we need more support!'

14 January 2021 7:35 PM

Loadshedding is another blow to the struggling restaurant industry. We need more relief says Grace Harding (Restaurant Collective)

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Malema willing to be the first one to get COVID-19 vaccine

14 January 2021 3:22 PM

EFF leader Julius Malema is calling for members to halt political gatherings pending further guidance from government.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Singh must provide affidavit by Monday after non-appearance at Zondo Commission

13 January 2021 7:47 PM

Former Eskom CFO Anoj Singh will still have to appear after not testifying as scheduled, says EWN's Gaye Davis. But will he sing?

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Is liquor industry's plea for tax break the start of 'unaffordable tax revolt'?

13 January 2021 7:09 PM

The industry wants excise tax payment deferred until the alcohol ban is lifted. Wide-ranging reaction on The Money Show.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Trump claims incendiary speech before Capitol riots was 'totally appropriate'

12 January 2021 8:16 PM

With steps afoot to remove/impeach Donald Trump ahead of Biden's inauguration, he's chosen to visit 'his' wall on Mexico border.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Dlamini-Zuma flags large gatherings as one of the reasons for level 3 lockdown

12 January 2021 4:02 PM

Ministers Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Aaron Motsoaledi are leading a briefing on the latest COVID-19 restrictions, regulations and enforcement.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

Ports of entry to be closed, alcohol sales still banned as SA remains on Level 3

11 January 2021 9:05 PM

President Cyril Ramaphosa says the first part of government's strategy is to acquire enough vaccine doses to reach herd immunity.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward

'ANC is against another hard lockdown'

11 January 2021 6:33 PM

"Family meeting" – the scariest words in the English language. Bruce Whitfield interviews News24 Political Editor Qaanitah Hunter.

Share this:
Read More arrow_forward