IMF expects 5.5% global growth rebound thanks to vaccines, but SA lagging behind
Some good news from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today - the organisation is revising its world growth outlook _up_wards.
However, South Africa is not quite on the same trajectory.
Japan, the United States and India all growing quite nicely.Bruce Whitfield, The Money Show host
But South Africa - they'd thought 'you'd bounce from a 6% decline to about 3%'. Now they say we're not even going to make that level!Bruce Whitfield, The Money Show host
The IMF's projections hinge on Covid-19 vaccine availability.
Although recent vaccine approvals have raised hopes of a turnaround in the pandemic later this year, renewed waves and new variants of the virus pose concerns for the outlook.IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2021
Amid exceptional uncertainty, the global economy is projected to grow 5.5 percent in 2021 and 4.2 percent in 2022. The 2021 forecast is revised up 0.3 percentage point relative to the previous forecast, reflecting expectations of a vaccine-powered strengthening of activity later in the year and additional policy support in a few large economies.IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2021
"I guess they're concerned about our lack of a vaccine rollout plan" says Kevin Lings (chief economist at Stanlib Asset Management) on The Money Show.
The IMF makes it very clear that in order to get the growth rate to look better... you've got to have a successful vaccine dissemination programme and it's got to be administered pretty much in the first half of the year!Kevin Lings, Chief economist - Stanlib Asset Management
In some countries, particularly the US and Japan, the IMF is also flagging that it helps enormously that they've got this big fiscal stimulusKevin Lings, Chief economist - Stanlib Asset Management
South Africa's first tranche of 1.5 million doses (population 59+ million) from India is expected to arrive before the end of January.
What you see in the [IMF] data is partly a difference between those countries that seem to be able to get their vaccine programme in order and those that are struggling. Clearly with those that can do better, the expectation is their growth will improve.Kevin Lings, Chief economist - Stanlib Asset Management
There is a risk with the whole growth initiative the IMF is describing because if the vaccines are not effective or if they can't be rolled out... then clearly we are going to have a very disappointing growth outcome relative to what the current expectation is.Kevin Lings, Chief economist - Stanlib Asset Management
In South Africa's case our government's got areas of financial constraint...Kevin Lings, Chief economist - Stanlib Asset Management
The country's lacking in two critical areas he says: the lack of money at government level to help ourselves, and the vaccine rollout (or current lack thereof).
It feels to me that we have ad hoc programmes. We get lobbied by certain groups; we respond to those; we try and spend some money, but what is the overall initiative?Kevin Lings, Chief economist - Stanlib Asset Management
For more from Lings, take a listen:
Source : https://previews.123rf.com/images/walldi/walldi2101/walldi210100175/162474211-corona-vaccination-in-front-of-a-south-africa-flag.jpg
Siyathemba Inflight Catering MD Sonette Joubert talks about the newly gazetted ruling saying she is still in shock.Read More
Bruce Whitfield chats to Justin Drennan, Co-Founder at Parcel Ninja about the astonishing growth path of the business.Read More
Hemelzicht Vineyards, a new investment model that gives the public the opportunity to own a share in a luxury wine estate.Read More
Despite lockdowns and the global pandemic the fish supplier stayed afloat and was even able to do swimmingly during the past year.Read More
The demands have been submitted to the general secretary of the Public Service Coordinating Bargaining Council (PSCBC).Read More
'I'm infuriated!' Commissioner Edward Kieswetter says he feels the need to speak truth to power. Strong words on The Money Show.Read More
Despite the killer liquor bans in SA, Distell posted a double-digit profit for 2nd half of 2020 says Group CEO Richard Rushton.Read More
Woolworths is not paying an interim dividend, despite strong profit increase. The Money Show interviews Group CEO Roy Bagattini.Read More
Earnings were negatively impacted by exchange rate volatility but Covid-19 provisions resilient, says Group CEO Adrian Gore.Read More
'I am immensely proud of how our team of more than 95,000 people across Anglo American pulled together' says CEO Mark Cutifani.Read More
The opportunity is a game-changer for the fledgling SA bank. Bruce Whitfield interviews TymeBank CEO Tauriq Keraan.Read More
The untapped potential of Africa’s treasure trove of natural wealth presents its beneficiaries with a prosperous future, if exploited.Read More
Tackling Africa’s energy crisis starts with policymakers and evidence shows that they’re not moving fast enough.Read More
Wherever there is a problem, there is a solution and in the energy sector, a solution is an opportunity.Read More
The market exists and, so does the technology – the question is, who is capable of operating energy storage in South Africa?Read More
The vote was split with 57 lawmakers voting to convict and 43 voting to acquit.Read More
World Radio Day is celebrated on the February 13. It was declared by UNESCO on 3 November 2011.Read More
The local product costs a fraction of the price of imported units. Bruce Whitfield interviews Ideso design director Marc Ruwiel.Read More
Dirco DDG responsible for Asia and the Middle East Ambassador Anil Sooklal says they want democracy to be restored.Read More
Tyson’s longtime manager Larry Thompson confirmed the actress passing on Thursday.Read More