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'If we have fourth wave, the more immunity, the more muted that wave will be'

26 October 2021 7:26 AM
Tags:
infections
COVID19
coronavirus pandemic
coronavirus fourth wave

Actuary and member of the Actuarial Society Of South Africa’s Covid-19 Working Group Adam Lowe reflects on the wave hitting SA.

The Department of Health on Monday night said nine more people have succumbed to Covid-19 related complications and 146 have tested positive for the virus in the last 24 hours.

The latest deaths take the country's death toll to 88,934 since last year, while the latest confirmed infections takes the number of confirmed Covid-19 infections to over 2.9 million since the first case was detected in March last year.

RELATED: Gauteng races to get residents vaccinated against COVID-19 to thwart fourth wave

The government says so far, 21,514,033 shots have been administered and it aims to vaccinate at least 70% of the population by December.

The Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) says South Africa’s vaccination programme is in a race against time, as it expects the fourth wave to hit the country in December 2021 and into January 2022.

Bongani Bingwa chats to Actuary and member of the Actuarial Society Of South Africa’s Covid-19 Working Group Adam Lowe.

The general consensus and the general patterns that we have studied and all the signs point to December and January being the most likely for the fourth wave.

Adam Lowe, Actuary and member - Actuarial Society Of South Africa’s Covid-19 Working Group

He adds that if there is large immunity in the country, there may not be a fourth wave at all.

If someone is vaccinated we know that there is a level of immunity within that person. The way we see it, is that if we have a fourth wave, the more immunity we have, the more muted that wave will be.

Adam Lowe, Actuary and member - Actuarial Society Of South Africa’s Covid-19 Working Group

Listen below to the full conversation:




26 October 2021 7:26 AM
Tags:
infections
COVID19
coronavirus pandemic
coronavirus fourth wave

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